How Can You Absolutely Ensure We'll All Be OK?

Speaking of the Minnesota bridge collapse, I really need to chill sometimes. I don't know why idiocy bugs me so much. I've got to learn to tune it out!

I was at the Doctor's office on Friday and the TV was turned to CNN. A pretty blonde was interviewing the Secretary of Transportation. She asked such ridiculous questions that I felt like jumping up and yelling at the TV asking the woman to just shut up. However, I was luckily able to restrain myself and didn't alarm any of the elderly patients sitting in the lounge with me. Still, I was incensed enough to quickly write down the dumb questions on a sheet of paper (is that a normal response to being incensed?). Here's some of what the pretty blonde (PB) asked "What are you doing to ensure that this never happens again?" (PB actually emphasized the word "ensure" even tapping her pen on the table to make the point) and "Why does it take a huge tragedy like this to draw attention to the condition of our nation's bridges?" Remember, PB was not interviewing some dimwitted joe blow on the street with these questions - they were directed at the Secretary for Transportation! I know I could never hold public office because my responses to these questions would not have been as polite as Madam Secretary. Even if I'd managed to control myself, it may have gone something like this:

PB: What are you doing to ensure that this never happens again?
ME: Well, PB, if you're so confident you can absolutely ensure (in a tone that mocks hers) that a future event does not happen, we'd love to employ you in our government. Perhaps I should ask what you are doing to ensure (continued mocking tone) that your vehicle does not fail tonight. In fact, I'm curious to know what you have done to ensure (mocking tone) that your jacket doesn't crumble while you are on the air embarrassing yourself and the network. To be serious, PB, we will do all we must to reduce the likelihood that such events don't happen again. I would argue the fact that this is such a rare and tragic event underscores that we're doing a good job of minimizing that likelihood. Do you realize how many bridges there are in this country and how many cars travel over these bridges every day? How about you calculate the likelihood of a bridge collapse causing a fatality. Surely there are more likely dangers we also need to focus our attention and resources on? Speaking of more likely dangers, I'd love to know what you've done to ensure (even more mocking tone) you or your family are not killed by lightning this week. But, I go on too long. I'd like to hear your next question.

PB: Why does it take a huge tragedy like this to draw attention to the condition of our nation's bridges?"
ME: Well, PB, what else do you suggest should draw attention to the condition of bridges? Didn't you answer your question in your question? The very fact that you want attention (point emphasized by tapping a pen on the camera) drawn to something means that something has to happen to draw attention to it. The point, I think you are trying to make is whether this tragedy was preventable. And that is worthy of investigation. However, all of us are constantly making trade-offs between protecting our lives and reasonably getting on with things. By sitting under those heavy, hot studio lights, PB, you have essentially made the decision that the likelihood of those lights falling and killing you right now is not large enough for you to avoid sitting where you are and getting on with your job. A more intelligent question for you to have asked is: Could we reasonably have predicted this bridge collapsing at that time? Current indications are that the answer to that question is NO.

PB: Uh, well. I guess that's all ... We now take you to an interview with a victim of the collapse who was in a car when the bridge fell out from underneath her. Maam, how did you feel when you realized the bridge under you was collapsing?
ME: (muttering in the background assuming the mic is off) Dimwit!

We're In Minnesota, and The Kids Are Alright!

I know some of you will think that I'm being cruel by poking fun at the genuine concern of my friends and relatives, but then you're missing the point.

I've always found it interesting how people are completely unable to reasonably calculate the odds of an event happening. They tend to distort the probabilities and think some things are much more likely to happen than they really are and others are much less likely to happen than they really are.

So, after the world's news media splashed the tragic story of the Minnesota bridge collapse across their pages and screens, I got emails from some friends and relatives just wanting to make sure we were alright.

What are the odds of my being in one of the fifty cars that were on the bridge when it collapsed. At the most naive level, the odds would be about 1 in 5 million (approximately the MN population) assuming that each resident of the state has an equal chance of being on the bridge at any given point in time. But, the bridge collapse happened in Minneapolis and I live about 150 miles away. Assuming that people living in Minneapolis have a much higher likelihood of being on the bridge at that particular time (or alternately that I have a much lower likelihood of being on a bridge in Minneapolis), that lowersthe odds somewhat. I am sure there are numerous other sophisticated adjustments that can be made to calculate a more accurate estimate of the odds of my being injured in the bridge collapse, but that isn't my point either.

Most of those who wrote expressed genuine concern and were not joking when they inquired about our safety. Yet, it is only such media-hyped stories that seem to elevate peoples' sense of danger, fear and the care of family. The odds of being struck by lightning are approximately 1 in 2 million. Yet, I don't get calls from concerned friends telling me they heard there was a lightning strike in Minnesota and they wanted to know if I was safe. Interestingly, it doesn't even seem to work on positive events. I have never received a call (and I would never expect to receive a serious call) from a relative saying "Oh, I heard the $25 million lottery winner was from Minnesota - I just wanted to check to see if it was you." There are so many more likely things that can befall me but the media seem to be very successful at heightening everyone's sense of insecurity and fear such that they are unable to reasonably evaluate the probability of the danger.

Think of the implications of this if your success depended on keeping people in a state of fear and insecurity ...