We're In Minnesota, and The Kids Are Alright!

I know some of you will think that I'm being cruel by poking fun at the genuine concern of my friends and relatives, but then you're missing the point.

I've always found it interesting how people are completely unable to reasonably calculate the odds of an event happening. They tend to distort the probabilities and think some things are much more likely to happen than they really are and others are much less likely to happen than they really are.

So, after the world's news media splashed the tragic story of the Minnesota bridge collapse across their pages and screens, I got emails from some friends and relatives just wanting to make sure we were alright.

What are the odds of my being in one of the fifty cars that were on the bridge when it collapsed. At the most naive level, the odds would be about 1 in 5 million (approximately the MN population) assuming that each resident of the state has an equal chance of being on the bridge at any given point in time. But, the bridge collapse happened in Minneapolis and I live about 150 miles away. Assuming that people living in Minneapolis have a much higher likelihood of being on the bridge at that particular time (or alternately that I have a much lower likelihood of being on a bridge in Minneapolis), that lowersthe odds somewhat. I am sure there are numerous other sophisticated adjustments that can be made to calculate a more accurate estimate of the odds of my being injured in the bridge collapse, but that isn't my point either.

Most of those who wrote expressed genuine concern and were not joking when they inquired about our safety. Yet, it is only such media-hyped stories that seem to elevate peoples' sense of danger, fear and the care of family. The odds of being struck by lightning are approximately 1 in 2 million. Yet, I don't get calls from concerned friends telling me they heard there was a lightning strike in Minnesota and they wanted to know if I was safe. Interestingly, it doesn't even seem to work on positive events. I have never received a call (and I would never expect to receive a serious call) from a relative saying "Oh, I heard the $25 million lottery winner was from Minnesota - I just wanted to check to see if it was you." There are so many more likely things that can befall me but the media seem to be very successful at heightening everyone's sense of insecurity and fear such that they are unable to reasonably evaluate the probability of the danger.

Think of the implications of this if your success depended on keeping people in a state of fear and insecurity ...