Rajiv's Law of Discussion of Issues

Rajiv's Law of Complex Issue Discussion:

The amount of outrage expressed by a person on any complex issue is inversely proportional to their understanding of it.

You must not of learned much!

Okay, I decided to post a quick note to this dormant blog about a pet peeve I have that today boiled over into active frustration. For some reason, today I saw THREE separate instances of people using "of" instead of "have." It drives me NUTS even though I realize how irrational the reaction is.

I am guessing that it is because of the SOUND of the word, people have written things like "I must of learned something in class," or "You should of come over yesterday," or "You must of stayed out late last night."

What is the deal here? Surely when you write it you realize how stupid it looks and sounds? If you can't figure out when to use "have," just go ahead and use a contraction like "must've" or "should've" even though I'm not a huge fan of that usage.

Phew! That feels better ...

And while we're at it, people PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE ...

This post cannot peek your interest, but it certainly can pique your interest.

Books ...

Some Great Books I've Read Recently:
Predictably Irrational
Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness

Some books I want to read
Buyology: Truth and Lies about Why We Buy
Call of the Mall
Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin
Impossible?: Surprising Solutions to Counterintuitive Conundrums
Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior
The Logic of Life
Don't Believe Everything You Think
Blind Spots: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things
Mistakes Were Made (But Not By Me)
Innumeracy
Irreligion
Crimes Against Logic
Everything You Know About God Is Wrong
Gut Feelings
The Black Swan
The Two Headed Quarter
Thinking and Deciding
More Damned Lies and Statistics
Statistics and Data Analysis: From Elementary to Intermediate
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

Open Letter to Vikings Owner Zygi Wilf

Dear Mr. Wilf:

Yes, I know how the sunk cost effect and commitment/consistency theory make it difficult for you to pull the plug on Mr. Dead Man Walking (oops, I meant Mr. Childress). But, please have some pity on Mr. I Just Need to Play Better (a.k.a Mr. Tarvaris Jackson) and put a merciful end to their suffering? And, it may just minimize the misery of another lost season for us Vikings fans.

Actually, you know what terrifies me more than a string of losses this year? A string of wins this year. I am dreading the idea of your continued support for a clueless coach (and let’s not forget his “system”) and an incompetent QB instead of stopping the bleeding right now. I worry that you will feed this team some hemorrhaging medicine that results in a few victories in a row so they end up with a spectacular 9-7 season. Then, what if they somehow make the playoffs. Isn’t it going to be so much harder to fire them then? Why not rip the Band-Aid off now and give all of us some shred of hope for next year?

Let’s give credit where it is due. First, I am sure that Mr. Childress DOES have a brilliant offensive “system.” Too bad it is a LOSING SYSTEM. Second, I am sure that Mr. Jackson is the physical prototype of an NFL QB. Too bad that most of his muscle is between his ears. Third, let’s talk about prized free-agent signing, Mr. Bernard Berrian. Yes, I am sure he is fast. Too bad he’s so fast that his right foot managed to trip up his left foot on the one deep pass that poor Mr. Jackson tried to throw. Finally, let’s talk about the other prominent signing recommended by Mr. Childress. Yes, the guy who dropped the eminently catchable pass in the end zone against the Colts. Visanthe … Wait, isn’t his nickname “Vise-Grip” Shiancoe? ‘Nuff said.

Mr. Wilf, you nobly backed coach Childress when he asked you to open up your pocketbook and pay a fortune for big-name free agent signings. Your loyalty was impressive when you trusted coach Childress who claimed that he had the skill to identify and groom a top notch quarterback in Tarvaris Jackson. I saw you smiling and nodding your head when you stood beside the coach as he talked about how improved Jackson was and how ready he is to lead the offense this year.

Sorry to sound pedantic, but attribution theory (see Kelley 1967) suggests that when consistency is high (Childress’ coaching performance is equally incompetent in different game situations and over multiple years), distinctiveness is low (Childress’ displays the same ineptitude in every phase of the game – whether it be offensive pass effectiveness or defensive pass coverage – and against any team he plays), and consensus is low (other teams – even ones that perform pathetically against other teams – look like superstars against a Childress-coached Vikings), it is reasonable to make an internal attribution (the cause of the failure is Childress). Kelley (1967) says that when the information available forms such a pattern, a clear attribution can be made to the “actor” (Childress). My guess is that a simple analysis of the pattern of information relating to Tarvaris Jackson will also allow you to make a clear attribution as to his role in this fiasco. Given coach Childress’ degree in psychology, this research may actually be familiar to him.

Perhaps I can appeal to your sense of outrage to overcome the normal resistance to going back on your “support” for coach Childress. You gave this man everything he wanted in order to build a contending team today. It is clear you opened your pocketbook to buy him all the toys he could demand to make his mysterious “system” work. Given that his system (which seems to basically consist of carefully concealing his mouth so no one steals his electric plays) has been given many opportunities to prove itself and he cannot blame it on a lack of talented players, maybe it is time to question whether the system works. In fact, how about we even question whether there IS a system in the first place. You know what, I suspect the reason coach Childress covered his mouth when relaying plays is because he wanted to hide the fact that he hadn’t come up with a single play yet! I can imagine coach Childress covering his mouth and muttering “Okay, I’ve got my mouth covered, you think anyone knows that I don’t have any brilliant play thought up yet? What can we do? Hey, how about having our superstar speedster Adrian Peterson run up the middle? Make sure you ask him to find the thickest part of the pile up and run straight towards it with his head down?” Poor Adrian probably hasn’t been executing the way he has been asked to execute by the coach.

Coach Childress loves to say “we’re always looking to put the personnel on the field that give us the best chance to win.” Maybe you should gently suggest to him that he stay home one of these Sundays?

Driving Me To Drink!

Imagine you have a 20-year-old son. Now, you're having a party at home and need a 12-pack of beer to re-stock the refrigerator. Your son drives up, returning from school and you run out, hop in the car and ask him to take you to the liquor store so you can buy some beer for your party. You get to the store and hop out and pick up some beer while your son stays in the car bobbing his head to the rock band playing on the radio. You grab the beer, put it in the trunk and slide into the passenger's seat and ask your son to take you home.

Re-read that paragraph above and imagine yourself as the Dad in that situation.

Did you realize that you have just committed an illegal act?

Bizarre as it may seem, it appears that driving someone (who is of legal drinking age) to a liquor store if you are underage is illegal. Notre Dame quarterback, Jimmy Clausen found that out when he was arrested as he was waiting outside in his car while his 23-year-old friend bought some liquor at a store. He said he was just driving his friend to the store and the arresting officers admit that there was no evidence that the liquor was for any minor consumption. Still, they arrested him, charged him with the offense, and had him pay a fine of $170.

I don't get it. Sometimes we go so crazy over protecting our kids from drinking that we reach ridiculous extremes. You can read the full story on ESPN here.

Trust No One

Have you ever heard of a kid who averages 89% on quizzes, tests, and projects but gets a D in the class because his average on homework assignments is a pathetic 39%?

Why? Most homework assignments were not turned in and the rest were turned in late!

How can that be? I don't get it. Isn't it reasonable to expect some effort at ensuring that the homework gets done on time and is done correctly?

Trapping Child Sex Offenders

Okay, so let's start with the basic premise over which there is no disagreement - pedophiles are scum. How desperate can you be that you can't find a consenting adult for your sex?

But, that's not the point of the post. The other excellent article in Rolling Stone is about this group called Perverted Justice that along with Dateline NBC is trying to trap these sexual predators into situations where they can be arrested and thrown in jail. Now that sounds like a perfectly admirable and laudable effort on the surface. However, the article is unnerving in terms of the lengths these guys go to in order to trap these people. Further, it makes the interesting point of whether all this money and effort is really being targeted at the people most likely to harm children. Ninety percent of the people caught in their nice little made for TV show have no rap sheet for sex offenses or arrest record of any kind. If you watch the show, it almost seems like some of these people have been tempted into these situations by pushy pretenders. Further, interestingly, by focusing on these online stranger encounters, attention is diverted from the real danger - not strangers, but family & friends. Looking at data on reported sex offenses, over ninety percent of perpetrators of child sex abuse are known to the child.

Apparently, there is already some increasing concern about this show that cloaks itself in virtue and morality. And, if the article is to be believed (who knows how biased the reporting is in the article), the leader of the movement is a strange dude himself - not someone I want my kids hanging out with.

You can read the full article by Vanessa Grigoriadis here.